In its Q1 announcement, Alcoa is projecting a global deficit for both aluminium and alumina in 2018. Due to delays in projects to expand smelters in China, the global aluminium deficit is expected to grow between 0.6-1.0m tonnes, up from Q4 deficit estimate of 0.3-0.7m tonnes. Global aluminium demand growth is projected to increase by 4.25-5.25%.
In alumina, Alcoa projects a global deficit between 0.3m and 1.0m tonnes for full year 2018, primarily due to supply disruptions in the Atlantic region. In its Q4 projection Alcoa expected a balanced market. The global market for bauxite is expected to remain in balance.